Tuesday
04Aug2009

Betting Preseason

by Dave Daily

It’s that time of the year again - almost like Christmas in August. Football is starting this week and wise investors are checking their bankroll along with their preseason schedule.

Here are some tips for preseason betting and remember that this still is preseason. It doesn’t count for the coaches and you won’t get a 100% effort from the players in every game. But your money is still green, so losing it in the regular season or preseason counts the same.

1)Don’t go crazy with 10 picks per week. This is preseason and there are only so few investment opportunities. Make sure your plays are investigated thoroughly before you select them.

2)Look at the quarterback competitions. For example, in Cleveland, Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson will be fighting all preseason. Tampa Bay has one with rookie Josh Freeman and Byron Leftwich. San Francisco has two gems in Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. The NY Jets has rookie Mark Sanchez trying to fight off Kellen Clemens. These are teams that are going to play their 1 and 1A quarterbacks at least three quarters some games. While other teams like New England will be going with Kevin O’Connell for most of the game.

3)Using trends are a little more helpful in the preseason, but stick to using coaching trends. In other words, does it really matter if Seattle is 21-4 ATS in Week 3? It would mean more under Mike Holmgren, who obviously used that week for a dress rehearsal, but not as much for new coach Jim Mora. Detroit is also 2-10 and 9-4 OVER in Week 3. With a new coach in Jim Schwartz, again, that may not matter a whole lot.

There are 11 new coaches this season and seven of them have never coached before: Jim Caldwell (Indy), Todd Haley (KC), Josh McDaniels, (Denver), Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay), Rex Ryan (NY Jets), Jim Schwartz (Detroit), Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis). Mike Singletary (SF) and Tom Cable (Oakland) were interim coaches last season and are preparing for their first preseason. Eric Mangini (Cleveland) previously coached for the NY Jets and Jim Mora (Seattle) coached with Atlanta.

Some current coaches really do care as Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville) is 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS overall in preseason. Bill Belichick is 31-26 overall SU and 30-22-4 ATS, while winning five of his last six games in Week 3. Of course, Week 3 is a dress rehearsal for most teams and the cream usually rises to the top in that situation.

Some coaches can care less about preseason. Andy Reid (Philadelphia) is just 14-26 SU and 19-21 ATS overall. When you have Donovan McNabb, the last thing you want to see is him go down with an injury in the preseason. Kevin Kolb is still unproven so expect the Eagles to utilize him as much as possible.

4)Trends are only as good if you the information to go along with it. DO SOME RESEARCH. You can look at every team’s website in the NFL (at NFL.com) and many coaches a few days before the game will tell the media who is going to play and for how long. For example, Jeff Fisher gives his Training Camp report on Tuesday. He may discuss an injury, but the closer it gets to game time, the most revealing he’s going to be about Kerry Collins, Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey’s playing time.

You can also check many websites out there like ESPN.com, CBSsportsline.com, FOXsports.com, etc., as well as a site like USSportsPages.com that will give you a link for every major newspaper for each team. The link takes you right to the football section of the sports page and you can usually find a good scoop about an injury or a coach’s gameplan.

Finally, be careful and make sure you have plenty left in your bankroll before college football and Week 1 of the regular season starts. The preseason should be fun and there should be several great betting opportunities each week.

If you have any more questions or you don’t have the time to go the entire season without help, call ATS Consultants at 1-800-772-1287.

 

Tuesday
28Jul2009

Would You Take a Chance on Michael Vick?

by Dave Daily

They aren’t exactly lined up down the street to take a chance on Michael Vick. The only team or league that wants to take a chance is the UFL-the United Football League. That’s the league that offers Dennis Green and Jim Fassel as head coaches and they are offering him a $1 million.

Hopefully it doesn’t come to that. Vick is out of jail, after serving 18 months for running a dogfighting ring and is now reinstated with conditions by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Vick doesn’t have a team right now, but can participate in all team activities except games. Vick will reportedly apply for full reinstatement as early as Week 1, though Goodell could wait as long as Week 6 (Oct. 18-19).

Is that fair? Probably not, though if Vick is a good citizen why not reinstate him by Week 2? Let him miss the first game, which won’t matter anways. Vick has missed two seasons of football and as a quarterback, he’ll likely be rusty. He’s not going back to Atlanta, so he’ll need to learn a new playbook and system.

Some of the teams mentioned as homes for Vick are no surprise. The Oakland Raiders is one obvious choice. Does Al Davis really care about PETA knocking on his door? Of course not and with a struggling young quarterback in JaMarcus Russell and an aging one in Jeff Garcia, imagine Vick running the “Wildcat” formation?

Washington is another possibility, though they are denying it. Cincinnati appears to be perfect, despite having Carson Palmer. Jacksonville and New Orleans are also being mentioned, though they have very capable starting quarterbacks. Would Vick be opposed to moving to wide receiver and just playing quarterback during “Wildcat” formations?

At 29, it may be too late for Vick to learn how to play wide receiver. He is a quarterback, now matter how inaccurate he can be. He’s a flat-out playmaker on the field. Let’s just hope that he’s safe off the field so he can get back on and do what he does best-play football.

 

 

 

Wednesday
08Jul2009

Steve McNair’s Image Not Open and Shut

by Dave Daily

The police in Nashville ruled that former NFL star Steve McNair was shot dead in his sleep last week by his 20-year old girlfriend, who then turned the gun on herself.

Nobody will ever know what went through the head of Sahel Kazemi before she decided to end the life of McNair, a man who helped her buy a condo and car. A man she met six months ago at a restaurant where she was a waitress and his family often ate.

She reportedly told a friend on Friday, the day before the murder, that she wanted to end her life. Financial problems shouldn’t cause a person to end not only their life, but their loved ones. Now investigators have discovered that Kazemi thought that McNair was romantically involved with another woman and followed her home.

Could this be more than a crime of passion? Does this make any sense that a man who had four children, was not only cheating on his wife, but his girlfriend?

The life of Steve McNair was full of stories of his courage on the football field and of his kindness off of it. Many athletes have charities that are just tax shelters. It’s great to put your name to a charity to enhance your image. Some take it very seriously and put their money where their mouths are. Apparently McNair did a lot of charitable work.

He put up a career that’s worthy of consideration to the Hall of Fame. He threw for over 30,000 yards and ran for over 3,000. There’s just two other quarterbacks in history (Steve Young and Fran Tarkenton) who accomplished those feats. If you judge a quarterback by his passer rating, then McNair may fall short of the Hall of Fame. If you judge one by heart, leadership and his ability to win in a conservative offense without many weapons, he’s a Hall of Famer.

Now he won’t be able to repair his image. Most of the fans in Tennessee and to a lesser extent Baltimore, will remember his play on the field. They will focus on what happened on the field and not what took place at the end of his life.

The case is over and hopefully so is the dirt regarding McNair’s personal life.

 

Thursday
02Jul2009

Use Your Summer Wisely

By Dave Daily

The month of July has started and we’re now a little over a month before the kickoff of the NFL Preseason. If you don’t bet baseball, the horses, golf, NASCAR, tennis, soccer or any other summer sport, then it’s time to relax. Take a few months off and catch some rays before next football season.

Or you could pick up a magazine and start reading about the latest acquisitions by the Chicago Bears (Jay Cutler?) or the chances of UL Lafayette winning the Sun Belt. There’s nothing wrong with relaxing and getting away from sports and gambling, but procrastination leads to bankrupt-nation (I made that word up).

If you have the time, go to your local newsstand or bookstore and grab a copy of the latest pro and college football annual. There are a lot quality magazines out there including Lindy’s, Athlon’s, Sporting News, Pro Football Weekly (now run by Yahoo) and much more. The one problem with these magazines is that they write most of their stuff after the NFL Draft in late April and miss whatever happens in May and June.

Of course, there’s not a lot that occurs in those months in pro football. Other than Brett Favre pushing to come back in the NFL, there haven’t been serious off-the-field issues or injuries during OTA’s. In college football, there’s usually players that get suspended after spring due to academics or off-the-field issues. That’s why you have the internet and sites like ESPN.com or CNNSI to follow the latest transactions.

There’s also other good college sites out there like CollegeFootballNews.com, NationalChamps.net, CollegeSports-fans.com and Rivals.com, just to name a few.

So while you are taking it easy this summer, don’t forget to do some research and keep up with the latest changes in the college and pro football ranks so you’ll be prepared once the season starts.

 

Tuesday
23Jun2009

Dave Daily's Mock Draft

By Dave Daily

The NBA Draft is Thursday in New York City and here are my first-round projections based on information about workouts, team conjecture and possible deals. Ricky Rubio seems to be the biggest mystery of the draft due to his obligations to his pro team in Spain (buyout as much as $7 million) and some suspicions about his ability. Is he quick enough to defend point guards in the NBA? Does he have a good enough jumper to keep defenses honest? I think Rubio could get drafted as high as second, but most likely, you’ll see a team like Minnesota jump up to take him in a deal. Washington at number five, has also received as many as 10 offers and should make a deal to get an established veteran. If Rubio slips to five, all bets are off as they may keep him.

 

1) LA Clippers Blake Griffin Oklahoma
2) Memphis Ricky Rubio* Spain
3) Oklahoma City Hasheem Thabeet UConn
4) Sacramento Tyreke Evans Memphis
5) Washington Stephen Curry* Davidson
6) Minnesota James Harden Arizona
7) Golden State Jonny Flynn Syracuse
8) New York Jrue Holiday UCLA
9) T oronto DeMar DeRozan USC
10) Milwaukee Jordan Hill Arizona
11) New Jersey Gerald Henderson Duke
12) Charlotte Terrence Williams Louisville
13) Indiana Eric Maynor VCU
14) Phoenix Brandon Jennings Italy
15) Detroit B.J. Mullens Ohio State
16) Chicago Earl Clark Louisville
17) Philadelphia Ty Lawson North Carolina
18) Minnesota James Johnson* Wake Forest
19) Atlanta Jeff Teague Wale Forest
20) Utah Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina
21) New Orleans Austin Daye Gonzaga
22) Dallas DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh
23) Sacramento Omri Casspi Israel
24) Portland DaJuan Summers Georgetown
25) Oklahoma City Darren Collison UCLA
26) Chicago Sam Young Pittsburgh
27) Memphis Chase Buddinger Arizona
28) Minnesota Toney Douglas Florida State
29) LA Lakers Wayne Ellington North Carolina
30) Cleveland Jonas Jerebko Sweden

*-possible trade